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RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 04:33:27 GMT

yah, that's what was in the back of my mind as well.

However, I wasn't sure how solid fernandez's hold on the starting job was for both this season and next. So I closed my eyes and went ahead with the deal.

He sweetened the deal a bit by adding a 2nd round pick in exchange for my 8th. He's currently in 2nd last and is definitely a top 6 pick each round...so at worst, I'm looking at pick 22(hopefully 18) for (at best) pick 119 (hopefully pick 128).

So we'll see if I can avoid the torpedo for the rest of the season...

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 23:31:35 GMT

I know I missed your deadline (I was trying to make my own) but I wouldn't bother with Hasek for Fernandez straight up. The injury risk (currently worrisome), and the salary cap hit for you. Fernandez might play more from here on out, or not. Without Lecavalier involved, it just isn't that much fun of a deal, in your situation.

But hey, if you did it, at least you should get better starts this year, those that you get.

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 10:42:35 GMT

In the off chance that someone checks this post before sunday 11:59pm.

The other guy came to his senses and took lecavalier off the table. He's offering Hasek straight up for Fernandez. This move would take away my keeper goalie for next year and put me $9 over the cap (reducing my cap $9).

The only word I have on Hasek's thigh is that he's DTD with a strain and has missed 2 starts now (fri/sun). Manny looks like he'll get back into a game this week - but not sure if Lemaire will platoon him with Backstrom. In fact, as Steffen mentioned, DET might even give Hasek some rest down the stretch too.

So is it a wise move to take this risk?

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 19:25:35 GMT

Come to think of it, they might rest the Dominator A LOT before the playoffs.

But if he isn't outright injured, I'd still do that deal. He's better than Fernandez next year too. But your cap hit should come under reconsideration if he is injured.

if you traded and Hasek were injured, you'd backfill with Johan Holmqvist and cross your fingers.
(Man, its so weird thinking in terms of no FA pile to shop from...)

and thx guys

RE: Trading Gonchar

ian — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 12:31:34 GMT

if you need any more confirmation then i'd be all over that deal too.

again, great analysis Steve.

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:09:55 GMT

[quote][b]qstar (3/2/2007)[/b][hr]Hmm...TSN reporting that Jimmy Howard was called up because Hasek is nursing a tender thigh and won't dress tonight. Have the injury odds caught up with the Dominator again?[/quote]
Always a possibility, but without further information, let's hope they're just resting the Dominator for the playoffs...

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 10:24:57 GMT

hahaaha! I thought that was your comment. NP dude, it's the least I can do for all the great advice.

I usually post my more significant trade propositions here since I know that at least 4 of my competitors visit that other place on the internet and the response time is pretty good here too. Kudos to you and Ian!

You've confirmed my gut reaction, I am definitely in it for this year and I think this trade will significantly boost my challenge; I just need to be very careful in my draft prep and auction next year.

Now I'm just hoping he follows through on the offer.

Hmm...TSN reporting that Jimmy Howard was called up because Hasek is nursing a tender thigh and won't dress tonight. Have the injury odds caught up with the Dominator again?

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 09:04:37 GMT

[quote][b]qstar (3/2/2007)[/b][hr]My Elias (under contract for next year at $24), Fernandez (under contract for $10) and cajanek for his Hasek ($15 now, $18 next yr if I keep), Lecavalier ($25 now, $30 if I keep) and Stajan (LW $1 now, $8 next yr). ...

With Fernandez a week away (which brings him back in time for the top 5 shootout for the title), is Hasek/Lecavalier that much of an upgrade overFernandez/Elias? I seem to think yes..[/quote]
And I agree. I would jump on this offer, if it's made.

Lecavalier is now the force of nature we all thought he would become. Only your salary cap and protection constraints should prevent you from keeping him forever. He's an unmitigated upgrade over Elias.

Fernandez's job security isn't that much better than Hasek or Holmqvist, given the play Backstrom and even Harding have given the Wild recently. Hasek helps you more now, and quite possibly next year too. The contract hit is a pain, but you ARE playing for this year, aren't you?

Cajanek and Stajan have similar upsides, both short-term and next year.

I say damn the torpedoes and do this for this year. (You can always do your homework on next year's sleepers later -- who knows, you might pick up next year's Bieksa cheap!)

[i](And my word, you DO get around. I've been seeing this team discussed all over cyberspace... It's a pleasure to help you out here, but flip me some karma buddy -- You know what I mean.)[/i]

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:11:51 GMT

First of all, I can't say it enough, but thanks for all the advice and commentary.

A blockbuster trade has been brought to the table, that seems pretty good to me but has me a little apprehensive. A guy has been spitballing and came up with this:

My Elias (under contract for next year at $24), Fernandez (under contract for $10) and cajanek for his Hasek ($15 now, $18 next yr if I keep), Lecavalier ($25 now, $30 if I keep) and Stajan (LW $1 now, $8 next yr).

This trade seems like it would give me some big guns for the championship run: world level goalie tandem of Kipper/Hasek with Holmqvist in reserve, All-star C presence: Lecavalier, Datsyuk, B. Richards, Zubrus with Fisher in reserve. Weakens my LW - Ovechkin, Ponikarovsky, Roberts, Neil/Stajan and leaves my RW and D the same. With Fernandez a week away (which brings him back in time for the top5 shootout for the title), is Hasek/Lecavalier that much of an upgrade over Fernandez/Elias? I seem to think yes..

However, I lose a goalie and LW next year and I will be $14 over cap which reduces my auction budget down to $176 ($200-$10 for ten $1 draft picks - $14) and I would probably keep: Ovechkin $13, Horton $10, probably Gonchar $24, Lecavalier $25 (freeze but only keep for 1 yr?), Radulov $8 which would be: $80...I would have $96 to spend on my remaining 11 auction players which kind of hamstrings me a bit...especially concerned that there will be some heavy bidding action on goalies since we have 16 teams with requirements for 2 goalies to play each week (but I could retain Hasek for $18 or Holmqvist for $8 if either has a starting job next year).

One team has Giguere/Huet locked up next yr, another has miller/lehtonen, another lundqvist/vokoun, and one guy is keeping fleury and considering keeping Khabibulin. My feeling is that teams with 2 starters will dominate the league next year since they'll take the saves and have a better shot at wins every single week.

Am I over-analyzing based on next year? Or should I just say "damn the torpedoes" and accept this offer and hope Lecavalier and Hasek stay healthy, try to rush my way to the championship and worry about next year when next year comes? I finished 10th of 11 last year...and I've rebuilt my team into a strong contender so far.

In anycase, he was throwing things out and hasn't 'officially' offered it yet. But our trade deadline is sunday 11:59PM so I'll have to turn this around quickly if it comes.

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 19:02:04 GMT

[quote][b]qstar (3/1/2007)[/b][hr]... I shipped out Skoula and a 7th round pick for Zhitnik and a 9th round pick. ...[/quote]
Congratulations! That by itself is a pretty decent upgrade, at minimal cost.

As for your roster, Dvorak is probably the weak link now.

Your intended keepers at this point are the best 6 of Elias, Ovechkin, Fernandez, Radulov, Gonchar, Horton, and J.Holmqvist, right? (Subject to off-season moves of course.) Even without Bieksa, that's one too many. Nevertheless, I'd still take Bieksa's proven production over the as-yet-unrealized promise of a Radulov or unknown job status of a Johan Holmqvist. Horton has shown flashes and he'll be a bigger cog next year.

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 17:13:21 GMT

Here's the update:

I couldn't get Boyle, but I shipped out Skoula and a 7th round pick for Zhitnik and a 9th round pick.

So my roster is now:

C - Datsyuk, B. Richards, Zubrus, Fisher, Cajanek

LW - Ovechkin, Elias, Ponikarovsky, Roberts, Neil

RW - Guerin, Langenbrunner, Horton, Ouellet, Dvorak, Radulov

D - Gonchar, Rafalski, Redden, Ohlund, Phillips, Zhitnik, Sutton

G - Kipprusoff, Holmqvist, Fernandez

I'm thinking that my RW needs the most help right now, but as both of you mention, Bieksa is someone who'd be a keeper.

Should I try to do a sign 'n trade for Bieksa (dropping Sutton) or one of the following RW - Backes, Kozlov, Sillinger, Stafford, Kolnik (drop Dvorak)?

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 20:44:19 GMT

Currently working on the sign 'n trade for Bieksa. The Gonchar for Boyle deal was categorically rejected.

Thanks to both of you for the comments and advice, I had forgotten about the sign 'n trade option. I'll let you know how it goes. Our trade deadline is sunday 11:59pm not today since we're running it weekly.

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 17:36:52 GMT

[quote][b]qstar (2/26/2007)[/b][hr]Trades are not restricted, but we have until this sunday night to finalize trades for 06/07 season. I'm thinking of keeping Gonchar for my run this year and flipping him in the off-season. I just saw this as a way to get bonus production for now and a cheaper keeper option for next year without too much a drop off next year.[/quote]
[quote][b]qstar (2/27/2007)[/b][hr]I am looking for an improvement this season since that 15 pt gap between 1-3 can be made up during our top 5 'playoff' portion.[/quote]
Well, after all this discussion, if you can't get a sign'n'trade worked out for Bieksa, you might want to go ahead with the Gonchar/Skoula for Boyle/Zhitnik thing.
Option C is a decent backup if Bieksa's a no-go. (You can always bump him up in your draft.)
There's now a lot of room for Horton to skate with Olli Jokinen, with Bertuzzi and Roberts gone.

And thanks, Ian, for the kind words. You know my work is too erratic to let me commit to a regular column, but every now and then the planets align and I can involve myself in a topic like this... This was fun, but work is intruding again now.

RE: Trading Gonchar

ian — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 07:59:59 GMT

wow, nice thread.

Bieksa is a MUCH better option than Skoula and i agree that Bieksa/Gonchar are a better tandem than Boyle/Zhitnik. i didn't realize that a D of Bieksa's quality was still a FA in your league. if you can work it out then i'd make a deal to get a sign and trade for Bieksa.

Steve's doing such a good job helping you here that i'm hesitant to throw in my own .02 beyond those thoughts. good job Steve.

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 07:41:42 GMT

---------------------

That's pretty much it in terms of salary, but I was thinking of keeping: Elias, Ovechkin, Fernandez, Radulov.

Therefore, I only have 2 slots remaining for: Gonchar/Boyle, Bieksa, Horton/Steen, J. Holmqvist. So I was thinking option C or Boyle $17 + Horton $8 or flip Gonchar/Boyle for a good starting goalie in the off-season.

There are a few teams out there that have or are likely to have 2 starting goalies locked up for next year. Therefore, I think I may want to roll the dice with Holmqvist and go with Fernandez/Holmqvist since goalies will be scarce among 16 teams filling 2 Goalie positions and there being Wins, Saves and GAA as H2H categories each week.

The 1st place team has luongo/brodeur, and a bunch of average guys, but he is being carried each week by his goalies since they usually win the 3 cats outright and so he only needs 2 more to win the 5 out of 9 to win the matchup...I think he usually gets SOGs and one other at least.

When Fernandez was healthy, I was very competitive in goalie cats and I think I have only been worse than 5th in SOG a few times this year, and mebbe the same in terms of PIM. Kipper and Fernandez were too inconsistent as a tandem earlier this year to give me a better record.

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 07:19:12 GMT

Hmmm...
A. Gonchar $20, Bieksa $8, Steen $8.
B. Gonchar $20, Bieksa $8 (but $13 cap hit), Horton $8.
C. Gonchar $20, Horton $8, Skoula dropped.
D. Boyle $17, Horton $8, Zhitnik $8 or dropped.

Have I got your options figured right, salary-wise, for next year?
Steen could replace Horton, he's likely just a year or so behind him in development. So it comes down to Gonchar and Bieksa vs. Boyle and Zhitnik. I like the former better, if you can get your colleague to make it happen for you. Looking just at the rest of this season, I still like Gonchar/Bieksa better than Boyle/Zhitnik. Sopel will help Bieksa's numbers a very little bit. Zhitnik has popping upside. Boyles will be Boyles. Penguins will be fun to own. [i]I'm running out of content.[/i]

I like A, B and D above, in that order. With the increase to 5 matchups per week, it really comes down to where you need the category help most this season, and your ideal keeper list for next year.

Over and out for today,
Steffen

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 06:48:32 GMT

Steffen,

You bring up a lot of good points. I had been watching Bieksa since early this season and I was poised to snap him up. I honestly don't know why no one has thought to add him. However, when I had made up my mind to take him, Fernandez went down with his injury and I had to make the Holmqvist move instead.

I'm currently 3rd in our H2H league; the gap between me and 1st is 15 pts (2pts per H2H win, 1pt per tie) and the dog fight is 3rd right now - I have 75 pts, 4th - 74, 5th 73. Our schedule has recently bumped up to 4 H2H games per week and in 3 weeks, the league shifts to 'playoff' mode where the top 5 teams go head to H2H with each other for the remainder of the season. Therefore, I am looking for an improvement this season since that 15 pt gap between 1-3 can be made up during our top 5 'playoff' portion.

I actually am exploring the option of a sign 'n trade for bieksa. But there are only 3 teams left with a waiver pick and 1 of them is the 4th place team. One of the teams that is out of it this year is waiting for Toews to be signed by CHI so he can be picked up as FA, so effectively, I only have 2 trading partners. The other issue is that I am already $1 over cap (penalty is reduction in next yr's budget by same amount). Also, we are only allowed to retain players for a maximum of 2 yrs.

Due to salary numbers, my offer might have to be something like: Horton $8 + Skoula $1 for Bieksa $5 + Steen $4. Or I can try to sell Skoula $1 + 5th round pick for Bieksa $5 + 6th round pick and take the $5 cap penalty next year - Bieksa gets retained for $8 so his effective price would be $13 to me (incl the budget hit).

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 23:59:18 GMT

Bieksa should be a keeper, for somebody in your league.

You couldn't pick up Bieksa off the FA pile, right? The Holmqvist pickup was it for you this half? (Not so bad, but Backsrom would have been luckier.) Can you trade Skoula and something to someone who will pick him up and give him to you? He's a keeper, fer shure. I like Gonchar and Bieksa way better than Boyle and Zhitnik, particularly if you're not desperate to improve this season... (because Zhitnik might pop like cheap fireworks in Atlanta)

Zhitnik is fast and skilled, and his job in Philly, originally, was presumably to provide cover for Pitkanen. I can only imagine that Ted Nolan let him go because they didn't get along for some reason, but what do I know? Perhaps his defense didn't cut the mustard.

But buddy -- Bieksa is a must-own in a keeper league. He's gritty with smarts and hands. Find a way to get him on your roster, and then forget the trade for Boyle and Zhitnik. [i]Disclosure: I've owned Bieksa from draft-day in all 2 of my pools: TMRX and the oft-mentioned deep keeper roto pool I so love.[/i]

Gonchar's next season should be a joyous thing for his owners. Keep him at $20 and trade him away as late as you can. Enjoy Bieksa for longer.

Noah Welch? I drafted him for 70 cents [i](6th of 10 rounds draft, after our auction for 20 players x 16 teams, after keepers (up to 15 per year, $40 cap for auction, $1.50 for FAs))[/i], then dumped and reclaimed him as he bounced up and down from the AHL. I'll be very curious about the Panthers' expectations for him...

http://shepherd.home.skyweb.ca/
I'm Steve.

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 22:08:10 GMT

I burned my FA pickup on Johan Holmqvist when Manny got injured at the beginning of the month...I'm kicking myself for not taking Backstrom instead.

The waiver wire is pretty bare...best D out there is Bieksa who has cooled off lately. My starting D are: Gonchar, Rafalski, Redden, Ohlund, Phillips, Sutton. Skoula is my reserve D-man.

Trades are not restricted, but we have until this sunday night to finalize trades for 06/07 season. I'm thinking of keeping Gonchar for my run this year and flipping him in the off-season. I just saw this as a way to get bonus production for now and a cheaper keeper option for next year without too much a drop off next year.

Looks like Noah Welch is gone...Roberts appears to have waived his NTC

http://tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=197768&hubname=

I'm loving that move...Roberts is my reserve LW behind Ovechkin, Elias, Ponikarovsky and Neil. Now if only Guerin can end up in ANA....

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 21:11:47 GMT

Probably right ...but if you don't, I like the idea of freezing Gonchar's salary while he mentors, say, Noah Welch. And there's gotta be a better FA than Skoula...

edit:
...and with so few FA pickups allowed, are trades as restricted? If so, I'd keep Gonchar for a bigger deal next year...

RE: Trading Gonchar

ian — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 19:17:56 GMT

Boyle alone is pretty much equal to Gonchar and Zhitnik will outproduce Skoula by a good margin for the rest of this year. you can make this deal, get better production and a better price on a keeper option on Boyle for next year.

i'd make the offer, i think you win the deal easily.

RE: Trading Gonchar

qstar — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 19:07:44 GMT

Danny Boyle at $17 seems like a decent value there. Gonchar at $24 I almost like too. What are your big D salaries like in your pool? Chara? Phaneuf? Redden? Visnovsky?

One last question. What do free agent pickups cost? Salary-wise?

---------------

Big D salaries are all over the board due to retention. Our rule is 20% increase in salary with 1 player allowed to have a price freeze, but then that player has to be released (1 yr keeper only at same cost as last year), minimum keeper salary is $8.

We auction 3 forwards at each position, 2 goalies and then 5 D. The remaining 10 players are straight drafted for $1 each. Phaneuf and Vishnovsky were drafted at $1 last year and then retained at the minimum. We are allowed 1 FA pickup before all-star and 1 after - cost is $5 each. We nominate our keepers in September at the draft table, so yes, summer free agent movement will be known before we commit our keepers.

Lidstrom is the highest paid D at $24, next is Niedermeyer at $21, Pronger is $19, Chara $18, Redden $16, Phaneuf $8, Vishnovsky $8.

For the record, Skoula was a throw in that I took as part of a deal that landed me: Guerin, Ponikarovsky,Zubrus and Redden.

If I decide to keep Gonchar for next yr, I would likely freeze his salary at $20. My keepers currently are: Ovechkin $13 next year, Elias $24, Horton $10, Fernandez $10, Radulov $8 + 1 of: Gonchar $20 or J. Holmqvist $8.

RE: Trading Gonchar

Steffen — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 18:31:06 GMT

Fascinating question (and use of fonts).

I'm no H2H expert, but I know keepers a bit.

First, I'm surprised Skoula was even owned. Trading him away seems a good thing.

I agree that Boyle and Zhitnik should replace Gonchar's output, all things being equal.

However, if the Penguins are truly making a push for the playoffs, Gonchar could be given an even better defensive defenceman to play with, and start to overproduce. And he WILL be better on a better team next year, and you WILL miss him. [i](But not his +/-. I just traded him to Ian in the TMRX, but I got 3/4 of Gonchar's year first.)[/i]

I wouldn't count on Zhitnik. Yes, he's on a great PP, but let's not forget this is his second trade this year. He wasn't an answer to the problems of Ted Nolan or that Philly guy. I like Zhitnik's upside, but Braydon Coburn was a score for the Flyers. For $2 though, you could see where Zhitnik ends up over the summer before deciding to keep him, right? [i](Again, in the interests of disclosure, I'm trying to trade Afinogenov for Lidstrom and Zhitnik in my deep (16x30players) keeper roto, so far to no avail. And I just FA-pickuped Coburn.)[/i]

Danny Boyle at $17 seems like a decent value there. Gonchar at $24 I almost like too. What are your big D salaries like in your pool? Chara? Phaneuf? Redden? Visnovsky?

One last question. What do free agent pickups cost? Salary-wise?

Hope this helps.

Trading Gonchar

qstar — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 16:36:34 GMT

Okay, I'm in a 16 team H2H league, categories for skaters are: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG. Team budgets are $200 and salaries for keepers increase by 20%. Limited to 6 keepers max.

I'm contending this year and I'd be trading to a team that is out of it already. Am I getting value by offering: D - Sergei Gonchar $20, D - Skoula $1 to receive: D - Boyle $14, D - Zhitnik $2?

I figure Boyle and Zhitnik can make up Gonchar's production over the next 2 months. I also like Boyle at $17 rather than Gonchar at $24 next year although I think Gonchar might be better than Boyle over a full season with the way Crosby/Malkin/Staal are producing.