RotoPass Message Board / Hockey / Players and General Information / Who to Keep? / Latest Posts

RE: Who to Keep?

ian — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 12:07:41 GMT

when you consider the fact that a $24 Elias might not outproduce an $8 Radulov next season and the fact that you need to budget yourself severely since you overspent last year, i'd just go w/ Rad. the Preds have shed some offense but they still have some significant contributors there and they've created opportunity that a guy like Radulov is ripe for. as a Junior, Radulov was elite and the SOG ratio is going to go through the roof for him, i'd say this year.

now if these rumours of Elias to Vancouver actually happen then that changes the situation again since Elias would be a significant center for a quality winger like Naslund out on the coast and some significant PP time there. right now though, i go with Rad-man, and the extra $16 for the budget.

RE: Who to Keep?

qstar — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 05:03:07 GMT

I appreciate all the input sean, ian and steffen. I apologize if it seems like I'm throwing out a lot of questions/commentary. Most of my hockey knowledgeable friends are in this pool, so I don't have many people I can bounce ideas off of or to 'talk things out aloud'.

It looks like the consensus is to keep Hasek.

I think Gonchar can either be flipped for a pick or I am thinking of just releasing him back into the auction pool and maybe getting him back for around the same price as keeping him - but Sean makes a very valid point with respect to Whitney usurping Gonchar's role.

Then the final decision that I am left with is Elias vs. Radulov. While New Jersey is looking like a wasteland of offense, I can't see Elias dipping below the 60 pt line which is where I would put Radulov for next year. I understand that his TOI will increase by at least 5 mins/game but Radulov was shooting at a pace of 123 SOG/82 games (even with a 30% increase, he would be around 160 SOG/82) while Elias is a perennial SOG beast (he should be good for a 300 SOG/82 pace) which I have always considered a more reliable category to target in the roster building process and as a leading indicator of other categories (ie. shooting creates opportunities for goals/PPG and garbage rebound assists/PPA).

So I feel that Elias still has some value if he can out-point an unproven star-in-the-making. But I guess the difference in salary and ability to keep Radulov for another year is quite compelling along with whoever I can get with that draft pick.

So I'm down to: Ovechkin, Horton, Hasek, Legace, Nylander + Elias (if no-one offers a decent pick) or Radulov.

Thanks for providing the sounding board guys.

RE: Who to Keep?

Steffen — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 11:05:21 GMT

Ah, but who won the TMRX this year? [i]C'etait moi...[/i]

Radulov could outpoint Gonchar, but he's still unproven. Gonchar will be Gonchar for another year or two, and scoring D are harder to come by. I think it's a tougher choice than Sean allows, but there's no denying Radulov has more long-term upside...

RE: Who to Keep?

ian — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 09:59:37 GMT

Sean Allen is money. listen to alla rino.

that is in no way meant as a slight on my buddy Steffen here, i just think that Sean nailed it.

RE: Who to Keep?

alla_rino — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 08:51:12 GMT

Yeah! It's that time of year!

OK... I agree with Legace and Hasek (dollar freeze) as must-keeps. Too many goalies are already locked up in this league. This tandem should actually be very solid through the year.

Ovechkin and Horton are no-brainers.

I am all in on Radulov for that price. If anything, the exodus of talent from Nashville plays into his favour. More PP time (with some damn good players still there: Arnott, Sullivan, Legwand, Zidlicky, Weber).

Gonchar and Elias are both too expensive to keep at all. Elias for reasons already pointed out and Gonchar because Whitney is the future and he is slowly usurping Gonchar's role.

So let's take Nylander and hope he lands on Alex-O's line.

I think this leaves you with a very good base to work with and maximizes your dollars headed into auction.

RE: Who to Keep?

Steffen — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 07:12:09 GMT

I'm no H2H expert, but I figure you still want to win your 3 G cats each week, along with the 8 skater cats, so I don't think Hasek is any less keepable for that reason. However, if you kept Legace and Hasek, I'd be picking a third G pretty high in the draft phase -- you have to count on Hasek missing some games.

I like your Radulov reasoning. If it came down to 2 of Radulov, Hasek and Gonchar, I'd certainly keep Gonchar, and probably keep Hasek. Elias shouldn't hurt you, he'll just be expensive. Expensive enough to drop? Maybe.

RE: Who to Keep?

qstar — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 21:36:44 GMT

First off, thanks for the advice Steffen! I am glad to have you back and providing some valuable insight.

[quote][hr]Does freezing preclude you from keeping that player at the end of next year?[/quote]
Yes, we basically extend the contract for one year at the same salary and then once the season is over, they are released back into the auction pool.

[quote][hr]I hate to say it, but Mr Elias might be trade-worthy for you. The Devils lost more than they gained this year, and Zubrus, Parise and Zajac won't cut it, I figure. Is he dangle-able? Ovechkin and Horton are strongly keepable.[/quote]

I figured that Elias would be the one to move; however, he is under contract and the other GM's know that I will want to move him and historically there is not much offered for players with high salaries...I would expect offers in the middle range of draft picks (ie. round 4-6 of 10) which is pretty bad considering our draft of 10 players occurs after we have 16 team rosters of 16 already. Our league tends to avoid helping other teams unload salaries in the off-season. At this point though, I might be inclined take it...just so I can free up a keeper slot and cap space.

[quote][hr]I figure your 6 keepers are Ovechkin forever, Horton forever, Radulov forever, Legace until Schwarz challenges, Nylander (however despicable his negotiating tactics, he'll ROCK with the Caps), and ideally, both of Gonchar/Hasek (either frozen). [/quote]

Due to the 2 yr retention max I have to release Ovechkin, Horton and Elias if I still have them at the end of this year and any players I extend at our draft in September will be subject to the 2 yr extension rule - ie. extend for 08/07 and 08/09 maximum. Therefore, I'm not so sure about Radulov since I'll only have him for 2 yrs where he might not contribute as much as Hasek or Gonchar (especially with the NAS exodus of talent).

As a sidebar, we are phasing out the 2 yr extension limit and setting up a 5 yr extension period starting for players drafted in 07/08 and up for extension at the end of the coming season.

For the price, Nylander is a great option, that leaves me at: Ovechkin, Horton, Legace, Nylander and it comes down to which 2 do I keep of: Radulov, Hasek, Gonchar if I trade Elias or which one player I keep if I retain (or am forced to keep) Elias.

Does the new 8-3 skater vs. goaltending category split make it easier to let hasek go since there is de-emphasis on goalies this year?

RE: Who to Keep?

Steffen — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 17:25:44 GMT

[quote][b]qstar (7/9/2007)[/b][hr]I know it's only July, but I can't wait for the season to start already.[/quote]
I, too, feel your pain...

[quote][b]qstar (7/9/2007)[/b][hr]We can keep 6 players for a maximum of 2 years subject to a 20% annual salary increase. We are able to freeze ONE player's salary.[/quote]
Does freezing preclude you from keeping that player at the end of next year?

[quote][b]qstar (7/9/2007)[/b][hr]I have the following players already under contract for 07/08 - Elias $24, Ovechkin $13, Horton $10 - therefore I have $134 to spend on my remaining 3 keepers and 10 auctioned players.[/quote]
I hate to say it, but Mr Elias might be trade-worthy for you. The Devils lost more than they gained this year, and Zubrus, Parise and Zajac won't cut it, I figure. Is he dangle-able? Ovechkin and Horton are strongly keepable.

[quote][b]qstar (7/9/2007)[/b][hr]My list of potential keepers is:

Hasek $18 (or freeze at 15), Legace $8, Gonchar $24 (or freeze at $20), Nylander $12, Radulov $8.

Many of the competition have already locked up their goalies under contract - Giguere, Huet, Biron, Emery, Lundqvist, Vokoun, Lehtonen, Miller, Fleury, Nabokov, Budaj, Denis, Kolzig, Roloson, Toskala, Fernandez are unavailable at the auction. Which leaves the big 3 of Brodeur, Luongo and Kipper available as well as: Ward and Dipietro available...but there are 9 teams left that are looking for 14 goalies.

Who shouldI keep? I'm leaning towards keeping Legace2 of: Hasek, Nylander, Gonchar and Radulov....I was thinking Hasek for an average cost goalie that might give star performance (or flame out horribly) and Nylander since he's cheaper than Gonchar. With the change in categories towards Pts, PPG and PPA would it be better to keep Nylander and Gonchar then since there are now 8 skater categories compared to 3 goalie cats?

Thoughts?[/quote]

I figure your 6 keepers are Ovechkin forever, Horton forever, Radulov forever, Legace until Schwarz challenges, Nylander (however despicable his negotiating tactics, he'll ROCK with the Caps), and ideally, both of Gonchar/Hasek (either frozen).

Glad to be back.

Who to Keep?

qstar — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 09:13:12 GMT

I know it's only July, but I can't wait for the season to start already.

Weekly H2H G,A,Pts,+/-,PIM,PPG,PPA,SOG, Wins, GAA, Saves. Starting: 4C/LW/RW, 6D, 2G + bench of 6. (edit: We just changed our scoring format to separate PPP into PPG and PPA and added Pts)

Salary cap is $200 but I overspent in 06/07 and start with $191. We use an auction to get our initial 16 players (3C/LW/RW, 5D, 2G) and then straight draft the last 10 players for $1 each.

We can keep 6 players for a maximum of 2 years subject to a 20% annual salary increase. We are able to freeze ONE player's salary.

I have the following players already under contract for 07/08 - Elias $24, Ovechkin $13, Horton $10 - therefore I have $134 to spend on my remaining 3 keepers and 10 auctioned players.

My list of potential keepers is:

Hasek $18 (or freeze at 15), Legace $8, Gonchar $24 (or freeze at $20), Nylander $12, Radulov $8.

Many of the competition have already locked up their goalies under contract - Giguere, Huet, Biron, Emery, Lundqvist, Vokoun, Lehtonen, Miller, Fleury, Nabokov, Budaj, Denis, Kolzig, Roloson, Toskala, Fernandez are unavailable at the auction. Which leaves the big 3 of Brodeur, Luongo and Kipper available as well as: Ward and Dipietro available...but there are 9 teams left that are looking for 14 goalies.

Who should I keep? I'm leaning towards keeping Legace 2 of: Hasek, Nylander, Gonchar and Radulov....I was thinking Hasek for an average cost goalie that might give star performance (or flame out horribly) and Nylander since he's cheaper than Gonchar. With the change in categories towards Pts, PPG and PPA would it be better to keep Nylander and Gonchar then since there are now 8 skater categories compared to 3 goalie cats?

Thoughts?