Looking for advice - Jagr/Lupul for Elias/Horcoff - LONG explanation

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Looking for advice - Jagr/Lupul for... Expand / Collapse
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Posted 9/20/2006 7:20:37 AM
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I'm in a keeper head to head league with 14 GM's and rosters of 26 players - 4LW,4RW,4C,6D,2G play each week and 6 bench players.

Stat categories: G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOGs, Wins,GAA,Saves

Salary cap is $200 and we retain up to 6 players (for a maximum of 2 yrs).  Player salaries increase by 20% each year (with a min salary of $8) but we are allowed to freeze salary on 1 player for a year, but must release him after that freeze year.

We have a 2 stage draft: first 3LW/C/RW, 5D and 2G are auctioned and last 10 players at straight drafted at $1 each.  Therefore, the effective cap is $190 for the auction.

My proposed keepers with 05/06 salaries are:

G- Kipper $21,G - Fernandez $5, LW - Ovechkin $9, LW - Elias $17, C - Horcoff $5, D - Zidlicky $14, RW - Horton $1

I was going to use the salary freeze on kipper so 06/07 salaries would be: Kipper $21,Fernandez$8,Ovechkin$11,Elias $20, and then 2 of: Horcoff$8,Zidlicky$17 or Horton $8. so I would be looking at:  $76(Horcoff/Horton), or $85 (Zidlicky/Horton or Horcoff)

I was offered: RW - Jagr $27 and RW Lupul $1 for LW Elias $17and C Horcoff/Horton $5/$1.

That would push my salaries to: Kipper $25,Fernandez$8,Ovechkin$11, Jagr$27(freeze),Lupul $8, Zidlicky$17 or Horcoff/Horton$8 for salaries of:$96(zidlicky) or $87(Horcoff/Horton).

My main concerns are:

1)Taking Jagr effectively bumps my salary commitments by $11 leaving less money at auction for one year's worth of production.  I would have $94 to bid for 10 players.

2)Jagr's bum shoulder

3)Jagr is RW vs Elias LW - positional scarcity

4)I could sign Elias for 2 yrs vs having Jagr for only 1 year

But the upsides would be:

1) Jagr's production over Elias and Lupul's production over Horcoff/Horton

2) It is consistent with my strategy of two 3-category Goalies, a virtual lock on SOGs with Jagr,Lupul,Ovechkin each week, very strong Goal scoring and strong PPP.  That should keep me very competitive week in, week out.

Any thoughts?

Post #267685
Posted 9/20/2006 10:20:51 AM


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qstar (9/20/2006)
I'm in a keeper head to head league with 14 GM's and rosters of 26 players - 4LW,4RW,4C,6D,2G play each week and 6 bench players.

Stat categories: G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOGs, Wins,GAA,Saves

Salary cap is $200 and we retain up to 6 players (for a maximum of 2 yrs).  Player salaries increase by 20% each year (with a min salary of $8) but we are allowed to freeze salary on 1 player for a year, but must release him after that freeze year.

We have a 2 stage draft: first 3LW/C/RW, 5D and 2G are auctioned and last 10 players at straight drafted at $1 each.  Therefore, the effective cap is $190 for the auction.

My proposed keepers with 05/06 salaries are:

G- Kipper $21,G - Fernandez $5, LW - Ovechkin $9, LW - Elias $17, C - Horcoff $5, D - Zidlicky $14, RW - Horton $1

I was going to use the salary freeze on kipper so 06/07 salaries would be: Kipper $21,Fernandez$8,Ovechkin$11,Elias $20, and then 2 of: Horcoff$8,Zidlicky$17 or Horton $8. so I would be looking at:  $76(Horcoff/Horton), or $85 (Zidlicky/Horton or Horcoff)

I was offered: RW - Jagr $27 and RW Lupul $1 for LW Elias $17and C Horcoff/Horton $5/$1.

That would push my salaries to: Kipper $25,Fernandez$8,Ovechkin$11, Jagr$27(freeze),Lupul $8, Zidlicky$17 or Horcoff/Horton$8 for salaries of:$96(zidlicky) or $87(Horcoff/Horton).

My main concerns are:

1)Taking Jagr effectively bumps my salary commitments by $11 leaving less money at auction for one year's worth of production.  I would have $94 to bid for 10 players.

2)Jagr's bum shoulder

3)Jagr is RW vs Elias LW - positional scarcity

4)I could sign Elias for 2 yrs vs having Jagr for only 1 year

But the upsides would be:

1) Jagr's production over Elias and Lupul's production over Horcoff/Horton

2) It is consistent with my strategy of two 3-category Goalies, a virtual lock on SOGs with Jagr,Lupul,Ovechkin each week, very strong Goal scoring and strong PPP.  That should keep me very competitive week in, week out.

Any thoughts?

 

welcome to the boards qstar.  any fantasy question you want answered should get a shot by columnists or designated posters on the site here.

this is my 3rd attempt at writing this.  kept getting error message when posting it.  i'll have to be brief it seems.

i pass on this deal.  i'd rather stick with 2 yrs of affordable Elias than 1 yr of Jagr.  i like the outlook of both Horcoff and Horton this year.  i like Lupul too but he'll have to find his own niche in an Oiler offense that will score a good margin.  you'll also apparently have an extra $10 or so in your auction budget if you don't do this deal.  depending on who is available at auction i'd rather have the cash and shore up with that.

i love your goalie situation.  that is sweet.

Ovechkin/Elias will help you a lot with SOG anyway.  yes Jagr shoots a lot but so do the former two listed.  i like the benefits you have with some extra cash at auction and an extra year with Elias.

i'd pass on this one.

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 Questions?  contact me at ian@talentedmrroto.com

 

Additional comments can be seen at my hockey/fantasy sports/general life blog at www.shallowfrozenwater.blogspot.com.  i'll try to do weekly team reviews if you want me to look at your hockey team then fire off an email to me

Post #267784
Posted 9/20/2006 11:08:48 AM
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Thanks for the welcome and the response Ian!

Yes, I think that's what my gut reaction to the deal was.  I like Lupul over 2 years b/c I think it'll take the better part of this season for him to get used to the Oiler work ethic and MacT's systems.  Lupul was -13 on ANA who were +25...I don't think that type of play goes over very well with MacT, so I can see Lupul in the doghouse and his icetime going to someone like Pisani -espcially given the chemistry horcoff, smyth and pisani had in the playoffs.

I've got until Saturday (our draft date) to ponder this trade b/c I was wondering whether I can replace Horcoff for cheap - decent centres are a dime a dozen even in our league...and I was thinking that it could open up flexibility for 07/08 by having both Kipper and Jagr on 1 yr deals.  That would leave me 2 open keeper slots for 07/08.

Post #267797
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