NBA Draft Kit: Error in Draft Cheat Sheet?

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NBA Draft Kit: Error in Draft Cheat Sheet? Expand / Collapse
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Posted 10/15/2006 8:27:24 PM
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Can someone help explain to me how T-Mac's REPs translate into a overall ranking of 49th , with a dollar value lower than Eddie Jones on the cheat sheet? There is a similar problem with Carlos Boozer, who has a 2006-07 dollar value of ZERO! Should I really expect Carlos Boozer to go for less than Jackie Butler? Sure these guys could be considered injury risks, but let's get serious, this is clearly not where they should be ranked.

I'm not really sure what the explanation is here, but whatever the case I don't think such rankings should appear on a draft 'cheat sheet'.

Post #273528
Posted 10/16/2006 1:37:51 AM


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You'll get a much better explanation from the BBall draft kit folks, but REP's are Reasonal Expectation Performances based on the last 3 years of playing time. Now, the players you mention could have errors.

The REP's are meant to be used as a tool only...based on a 3 year average. Meaning...someone that missed time or didn't play for the whole year will have a lower ranking on the REP list. It's not a complete indication of where you should draft a player. Hope that helps and I think I got it right. I'll email Pete Becker to shed a little more light if I didn't explain things correctly.

Dave

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Post #273544
Posted 10/16/2006 4:39:10 AM


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T-Mac's value was held down by his games played.  His injury-plagued season left questions, so we weren't aggressive with his GP until we saw him in preseason action.   The questions all seem to have answers, and he was actually bumped into the top 20 during yesterday's update.  I uploaded the new file roughly around the same time as your post, so you likely missed it.  T-Mac is capable of exceeding his REP, of course, but that assumes health.  There's a risk involved, and so it's reflected in his value.  

Boozer's REP is held back by a 44 games played prediction.  Considering he played 51 and 33 in the last two years, I'm not comfortable forecasting much more than that for him.  That makes him a late/last round pick.

Dollar values are based on REPs and as such, balance QUALITY with QUANTITY. If you don't give both, you're going to be penalized.

Hope that helps,

Pete
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Post #273552
Posted 10/16/2006 7:29:10 AM
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Hey thanks for the replies, they do help.

I can see what you are saying, and I did miss that update just by a bit. I still think Boozer is too low, but I can understand that ranking to a certain degree based on a 44 game assumption.
Post #273565
Posted 10/19/2006 6:21:20 AM


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can you explain stephen jackson and vlad radmanovic being higher than bosh, jamison and dwight howard?  or stromile "i've never accomplished anything, ever" swift being worth twice as much as josh howard?  the NBA dollar values are littered with things like this.  what happened?  this is not the quality of work that i have come to expect.  i dont mean to hit below the belt, but this looks like something from SI.com, not TMR.com.  if you are going to call something a "draft cheat sheet" based on REPs, you have to at least have someone look over it and human-adjust where the formula goes wrong

since there are numbers in the player profiles (1. yao, 2. amare, etc), i assume that they are listed in order of projected value.  couldn't you just strip off the paragraph explanations, list the players in that order, compile it all into 1 printable page, and make that your "draft cheat sheet"?  i think that would be much closer to what most readers are looking for.  i guess it would not have the auto-generated dollar values, but since when is TMR.com content with letting a computer/formula do the thinking for them?

Post #274266
Posted 11/7/2006 12:50:50 PM
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It's still early, but my call on Boozer looks good so far.

Another big error in the rankings: Zack Randolph at 152.  How does that happen?  You have him going for 19 and 9 over 68 games, sure the FG% is somewhat low, but he could shoot 40% and I'll take 20 and 10 on my team WELL before the 152nd pick.   This actually cost me in my first draft when I completely forgot about him and someone snagged him. 

Post #278760
Posted 11/11/2006 4:34:22 PM
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Considering his injury history, I don't think 19 and 9 over 68 games is unreasonable.  It's early.  And his FG% has been declining.  The question about Boozer and Zach has never been talent, it's been health and if someone else was willing to take that risk, good for them.  I think the ranking was legitimate, especially since neight F tends to block shots traditionally.

Hopefully, you are doing well regardless. 

TMR

  

Post #279593